Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Earthquakes in the Philippines for the Year 2025: Identifying Seismic Patterns Through Magnitude-Frequency and Reccurence Models

The Philippines is one of the most seismically active countries in the Pacific Ring of Fire, frequently experiencing destructive earthquakes due to its tectonic complexity. Understanding seismic behavior through statistical and spatial analyses is essential for hazard assessment and disaster preparedness. This study aimed to analyze earthquake-occurrences (magnitude> 4.0) in the Philippines during 2025 to identify temporal trends, spatial clustering, magnitude-frequency relationships, and recurrence probabilities. Using a quantitative analytical approach, data were obtained from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS, 2025). The analysis employed descriptive statistics, time series modeling, spatial mapping using QGIS and ArcGIS, the Gutenberg-Richter Law, K-means cluster analysis, and Poisson recurrence modeling. Findings revealed 229 earthquakes in 2025 (Jan - Oct), with an average magnitude of 4.8 and a mean depth of 35 km. Temporal clustering occurred in September and October, corresponding to the Cebu (Mw 6.9) and Davao Oriental (Mw 7.4) earthquakes. Spatially, epicenters were clustered along the Philippine Fault Zone, Negros-Cebu Fault, and Davao Trench (NNI 0.72). The Gutenberg-Richter analysis yielded b = 0.97 (R2 = 0.94), while Poisson modeling indicated a 97% for every three months with M≥ 6.0. Results confirm that Philippine seismicity exhibits distinct temporal and spatial patterns, governed by active fault dynamics. Integrating statistical and geospatial tools enhances national capacity for earthquake forecasting, infrastructure resilience, and risk reduction planning..